Analyse Lombard Odier: invloed op de pond van afnemende kans op no-deal Brexit

Beste journalist,

In bijlage vindt u een analyse van Stéphane Monier, Chief Investment Officer van de Zwitserse private bank Lombard Odier met betrekking tot de afnemende kans op een no-deal Brexit en de invloed hiervan op de pond:

"The odds of the UK crashing out of the EU are dissipating with the UK parliament’s efforts to avoid a no-deal Brexit, despite the intricate political battles. With an extension to the Brexit deadline triggered, and a high probability that Parliament will accept Mr Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement, we anticipate sterling rallying further against the US dollar.

As global sentiment started stabilising following the trade truce between the US and China and the risks of a no-deal Brexit started receding last week, we closed our long yen exposure and initiated an overweight of around 2.5% in GBP. These trades were implemented using currency forwards with a spot reference of around 1.2650 for GBPUSD. Compared with our long-term fair value of 1.40, sterling still looks cheap, especially now that the tail risk of a no-deal Brexit is clearly diminishing. While we also see a risk that GBPUSD may also overshoot our 1.35 target, there is no reason to expect it reaching the pre-Brexit range of 1.50-1.60 in the near term."

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Met vriendelijke groeten,

Katherine